Wits University Professor Bruce Milado, who’s also a member of the Gauteng COVID-19 Advisory Committee, says the model his team is using shows that the risk of the second surge is high.
The team has been monitoring countries like France and Spain which experienced a peak in infections in March.
The situation stabilised in the middle of the year but has peaked yet again.
1 575 new coronavirus cases have been recorded in South Africa in the past 24-hour cycle.
Milado says the risk can be minimised if people observe COVID-19 protocols more strictly.
“Sometimes people relax, sometimes there are fluctuations in the way people behave, there are fluctuations in the way the virus propagates. The likelihood or the probability of a second, third, or fourth surge increases if sections of the populations do not adhere to social distancing. The more strict we adhere to social distancing the lesser probability of a second surge,” adds Milado.
Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize has also urged people to continue practicing good hygiene behaviour and observe social distancing and wear face masks.